Record Projections for a New Season
After concluding 2025 with a historic milestone by being recognized as the largest citrus exporter globally with over 203 million cartons, South Africa initially projected a record-breaking 2026 season. The updated estimate now targets 206.7 million cartons, broken down as follows:
- Valencia Oranges: 62.9 million cartons.
- Soft Citrus (Mandarins): 51.8 million cartons.
- Lemons: 45.8 million cartons.
- Navel Oranges: 29.2 million cartons.
- Grapefruit: 17.0 million cartons.
The Pulse of the Growing Regions
Growers across vital production areas including Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the Eastern and Western Cape are the driving force of this global industry. Vanguard Group International remains in close communication with our farming partners, closely monitoring daily conditions to ensure supply continuity to international markets.
Weather Impact and Volume Adjustments
Severe weather patterns have necessitated industry-wide forecast revisions. Throughout May, heavy rains and high winds caused significant disruptions in the Eastern and Western Cape, with key agricultural areas like Citrusdal and the Gamtoos valley taking the hardest hits. Due to these natural events, a 3% to 5% downward adjustment of the original estimate is expected, equating to a reduction of 6 to 10 million cartons. We extend our deepest solidarity to the growers impacted by these floods.
Steady Progress in Global Exports
Despite recent climate challenges, export performance remains notably resilient with steady progress across major categories:
- Lemons: Experiencing exceptionally strong demand, with 19 million cartons already shipped, marking a robust 23% growth compared to the 2025 season.
- Grapefruit: Europe remains a crucial destination for fresh-eating fruit, currently absorbing 54% of total exports.
- Oranges: Navel varieties are peaking on optimal larger sizes. Valencia packing is kicking off in mid-June, setting the stage for a steady volume of premium fruit.
- Soft Citrus: Early varieties have largely concluded, making way for the start of highly popular varieties such as Clemengold and Nadorcott.
The recent extreme weather events in South Africa underscore the need to adapt our industry to changing environmental realities. At Vanguard Group International, we reaffirm our deep commitment to the growing communities affected by these floods. We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our regional partners, not merely to navigate this season’s logistical hurdles, but to continue championing sustainable practices that ensure agricultural resilience and long-term positive social impact.
Author: Neil Truter.
Quality Assurance & Grower Relations – Vanguard International
